Politics affects (directly and indirectly) pretty much every aspect of our lives. And while there are political campaigns every year, presidential election years impact the entire nation, causing both expected and less anticipated effects across almost every industry, particularly advertising. For all advertisers, political campaigns during these cycles flood the market with billions of dollars. The result? The competition for ad inventory goes up, which then drives up your advertising spend.
If you’re an advertiser in the political space, major election years present unique challenges and opportunities in equal measure — how you navigate this period and the strategies you implement is the biggest determinant of your success or failure. It isn’t just about winning the battle for ad space; you must also anticipate and prepare to adapt to shifts in voter sentiment and media consumption patterns that follow such high-stakes elections. Your ability to optimize ad spending and adjust your strategies accordingly is essential for achieving a competitive edge.
Understanding the media dynamics at play in this election cycle is essential to remain relevant now and in the future.
Evolution of Political Advertising
Political advertising has, for a long time, been part of our culture. But before we get into how political campaign ads have evolved since the first presidential election in 1789, let’s first understand the basics, such as, “What is political advertising media?”
As the phrase suggests, political advertising media refers to any channel or platform that political candidates leverage to spread their ideology and influence voter perceptions and behaviors. These channels include both traditional outlets like radio and print media and digital platforms like social media, podcasts, and blog articles.
Historical Perspective on Political Ads
As already mentioned, political ads have existed for almost as long as elections have, with roots tracing back to the early days of print (newspapers and billboards) and broadcast (radio) media. These were fairly “peaceful” political campaign ad eras, until television became part of political media. More specifically, the first-ever political ad to run on TV, “Eisenhower Answers America,” set the revolution in motion.
TV was revolutionary because it provided candidates with a platform where they more effectively could use emotions to resonate with their audience. Case in point: Though it aired just once, analysts consider the TV ad “Daisy,” from Lyndon B. Johnson’s campaign in 1964, as one of the top contributing factors to his landslide win over Barry Goldwater, and a turning point in political and advertising history. It’s worth noting that this period also saw an increase in the use of negative ads, which have now become a staple in political campaign strategies.
Transition From Traditional to Digital Platforms
Since the print media days, political campaign ads have continued to evolve with changing technologies and media consumption habits. The digital revolution of the 21st century has seen a significant shift in political advertising, with many campaigns adopting digital platforms like social media, email, and websites. This is due to the huge uptake of online platforms and the ability to target specific audiences more precisely.
For instance, Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign was among the first to leverage digital platforms like social media and podcasts to mobilize voters and raise funds. The campaign on social media was so successful that by 2008, Obama had garnered a total of more than 5 million supporters on social networks alone.
As technology advances, so does the sophistication of digital political advertising. Today, vast amounts of voter data have been instrumental in the increased effectiveness of highly personalized political campaign ads. However, these advancements have also raised concerns about transparency, data privacy, and the potential for misinformation.
Analysis of the Current Political Campaign Landscape
Now that we’ve had a short rundown of the history of political campaign ads, understanding the current landscape is essential for making the right decisions for your campaigns. This section will conduct an in-depth analysis of how this year’s elections will likely play out (marketing-wise), the contributing behind-the-scenes factors, and the concerns you should take into consideration.
Channels Most Impacted by Political Advertising
According to data from Reuters, traditional media, mostly TV, still remains the top priority for political ad campaigns in 2024 — so much so that it will make up more than 70% of the total ad spend. Television remains a dominant force, especially for reaching older demographics, with major networks and cable channels continuing to be prime destinations for campaign ads.
However, the landscape is becoming increasingly fragmented. You should expect to see political advertising focusing more on digital platforms, with Reuters indicating that digital ads will grow 156% from 2020.
More specifically, due to technological advancements and changing media consumption habits, connected TV (CTV) has emerged as a critical channel for political advertising in the current landscape. Data indicates that more than 100 million households in North America used CTV devices — smart TVs, gaming consoles, streaming services, and more — in 2022, with this figure expected to hit 121 million in 2027. Further, CTV will comprise 45% of 2024’s total political ad spend on digital channels.
With CTV advertising, political campaigns can reach viewers with more precision and flexibility than traditional broadcast television. This is because these platforms allow for dynamic ad insertion, through which advertisers can tailor their content to a specific audience in real time, based on data-driven insights.
The proliferation of political campaigns on traditional and digital platforms presents a challenge as well, as this influx could lead to increased competition for prime ad slots. With increased spend being invested in these platforms, there’s a real possibility that ads won’t get the visibility they need to be effective.
It’s important to consider other factors as well, such as the Federal Communications Commission’s (FCC) “equal time” rule on linear TV, which requires broadcast stations to provide equal airtime opportunities to all legally qualified political candidates running for the same office. This can present several challenges for political ads as, during peak election periods, your ad may be surrounded by a barrage of competing messages, thus diminishing its impact.
Additionally, when there are too many political ads taking TV airtime, viewers may become overwhelmed by the sheer volume of political messaging which may cause them to tune out or ignore ads altogether. In such a saturated environment, even well-crafted ads may struggle to capture attention, as the audience becomes desensitized to the constant barrage of political content.
The Role of Digital Platforms in Campaigning
Digital platforms play a substantial role in modern political campaigns. In this section, we’ll take a closer look at different platforms and the benefits political ads can reap.
Social media is the most common digital channel that political advertisers leverage. Platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and X (formerly Twitter) help build awareness, quickly disseminate information, and mobilize supporters. They can also help in reaching digitally engaged voters, like millennials and Gen Zers, who today make up around 48% of voters in the U.S. Lastly, the real-time nature of these platforms allows campaigns to quickly respond to news events, opponent attacks, and voter concerns.
Google Search is another critical component of digital political advertising, particularly through the use of search engine marketing (SEM) and search engine optimization (SEO). For instance, through SEM, political campaigns can leverage paid advertising to appear at the top of the search engine results pages (SERPs) when voters search for topics related to the election. This is extremely advantageous because research indicates that when a site ranks among the top three SERP spots, individuals are more likely to click on it.
Combined, digital platforms allow political campaigns to reach voters wherever they may be, which is crucial. Digital platforms eliminate the limitations that traditional platforms may have, such as geographic boundaries and limited audience segmentation. With digital media, campaigns can precisely tailor their messaging, which is essential for delivering personalized content directly to specific voter segments based on demographics, interests, and online behaviors.
Increased Emphasis on Personalization and Microtargeting
One of the most significant trends in political advertising is the increased emphasis on personalization and microtargeting. Campaigns are using sophisticated data analytics to segment the electorate into narrow categories based on demographics, interests, voting history, and online behaviors. This has facilitated the creation of personalized messages that resonate with individual voters, increasing the likelihood of engagement and persuasion. Microtargeting is particularly effective in battleground states and swing districts, where small shifts in voter behaviors can have a significant impact on the outcome of an election.
However, the use of microtargeting has also sparked debate about its ethical implications. Critics argue that highly personalized messaging can contribute to the polarization of the electorate, as voters are increasingly exposed to information that reinforces their pre-existing beliefs. Additionally, the lack of transparency in how some advertisers collect and use data for targeting purposes has led to calls for greater regulation and oversight.
Consumer Views on Policy
In an era when political and social issues are increasingly intersecting with consumer expectations, your political ads and their stance on policy matters can significantly influence your target audience’s perception of you. This election cycle is particularly rife with divisive topics, so clearly defining your position (or consciously choosing to stay neutral) is crucial.
Case in point: In 2023, Target faced significant backlash after it controversially removed several LGBTQ+ Pride displays from its shelves. From many consumers’ point of view, this demonstrated inconsistency. The effects were so significant that Target reported that its sales in the second quarter of the same year dropped by more than 5%.
While this example comes from a retail context, the lesson is equally relevant for all advertisers. The alignment (or lack thereof) between your messaging and the values of your target audience can have a profound impact on your success. If your ads take a clear stance on policy issues, be prepared for both positive engagement from supporters and the potential pushback from those who disagree.
Remaining neutral on certain issues can be a valid strategy for brands outside the political space as well as political advertisers working for local candidates, specific initiatives or ballot measures, particularly if you are targeting a diverse electorate or if you are aiming to appeal to a broad base. In such cases, your focus should be on universal values without delving into divisive topics. However, you should prepare for potential challenges, as voters can sometimes interpret staying silent as indifference or complacency, which could alienate voters.
Transparency Regulations and Policies
One of the most significant trends that have occurred during this election period is several states adopting laws governing the use of AI for political advertising. As of the writing of this article, 15 states have officially adopted laws governing how political advertisers can use AI, while another 14 states are in the process of constructing AI laws for political advertising. This is in response to the risks of AI-generated deepfakes and synthetic media which can be used to misrepresent or politically hurt a candidate running for office.
It’s worth noting that the majority of the states that have already adopted AI regulations don’t entirely prohibit AI use by political advertisers. These laws simply require you to clearly and conspicuously label your ads as AI-generated. For instance, if you leverage AI to create political ad content some state regulations may require you to label the content as follows: “This [image/video/audio] has been manipulated or generated by artificial intelligence.” Additionally, in July 2024, the FCC proposed disclosure rules that require TV and radio broadcasters to disclose if the political ads they air contain AI-generated content.
Political Campaign Ad Spending Forecast for 2024
According to Statista, political campaign ad spend will hit $10.2 billion by the end of the 2024 election period. This represents 14.6% growth from 2023’s political advertising spend, which was around $8.9 billion. Several factors will drive this surge in spending, including the high stakes of the presidential election, the increasing importance of down-ballot races, and the competitive nature of key battleground states.
Additionally, the adoption of digital platforms by political campaigns will significantly contribute to the growth in ad spending. Digital platforms offer unparalleled targeting capabilities, allowing campaigns to reach specific voter segments with tailored messages. As a result, campaigns are expected to allocate a larger portion of their budgets to digital advertising, including social media, streaming services, and programmatic ads. Nonetheless, broadcast media (linear TV) will continue to command a significant share of political ad spending, particularly for reaching older demographics who still consume traditional television at high rates.
According to separate forecasts, a closer look at different races suggests that the presidential race will see $2.7 billion worth of spending. However, down-ballot advertising, which focuses on races outside the presidential, gubernatorial, Senate, and House elections, will see a total of $3.3 billion worth of spending. Notably, the gubernatorial docket will likely see a decrease in ad spending from the 2022 election period.
Other 2024 Trends to Watch Out For
While it’s not exactly a new phenomenon, influencer marketing will also play a significant role in the 2024 election cycle. Campaigns are increasingly partnering with social media influencers and celebrities to reach younger voters and amplify their messages.
Influencer marketing and celebrity endorsements can, however, be a double-edged sword. On one hand, a well-respected celebrity endorsement can generate massive amounts of media coverage, sway public opinion, and mobilize supporters. On the other hand, celebrity endorsements can also polarize voters, particularly if the celebrity is associated with controversial opinions or actions.
AI and machine learning will also be instrumental in data analysis and forecasting. Sure, forecasting and analysis have been a significant component in political campaign ads for some time, but not at the level that these rapidly maturing technologies promise to achieve. For one, with vast amounts of voter data being readily available, AI can help political campaigns analyze this data at extremely high speeds and accuracy levels. What would previously take human analysts a lot of time and effort now requires only a fraction of those resources.
AI’s ability to analyze data in real time can also be a game-changer in the fast-paced environment of an election cycle, where timing and precision can make the difference between winning and losing. This is because real-time insights help campaigners quickly adjust their strategies, tailor their messages, and respond to emerging voter concerns or trends on the fly. Lastly, due to AI’s generally high accuracy levels, political campaigns can now make more accurate and personalized content that will appeal to targeted voters and drive desired results. And, there are now platforms leveraging solutions that specialize in safe data handling specifically for political advertising.
It’s evident that political campaign ads can be complex and pose significant challenges, even for the best advertisers. That said, it’s essential to approach this season strategically, lest you risk your political ads drowning in the deep sea of competing messages. To stand out and really resonate with voters, your advertising strategy needs to be well thought out and data-driven for maximum success.
If you’re trying to figure out how to navigate the complex political climate, we’re here to help. At AUDIENCEX, we leverage best-in-class AI-driven technology, unbiased media platform access, and privacy-safe data handling, all backed by industry-leading expertise. We can help you navigate regulations effectively and develop custom holistic strategies and impactful creative to ensure your message finds and resonates with the right audience.
Contact us today and let’s discover what we can accomplish together.